Between Angry Giants
Europe’s Unfortunate Spot of its Own Making
From 2016 - 2018, I was stationed at Ramstein Air Base, Germany, as a broadcast journalist in the United States Air Force. Among other things, this job involved deploying to Poland and the Baltic states and documenting NATO exercises; war games in the woods, basically. On one of these trips, I was documenting a small team of JTACs: Joint Terminal Attack Controllers, whose job was to be on the ground and call in airstrike coordinates. We were standing up on an observation point, watching some allied tanks roll across a field some kilometers away, when we suddenly heard a sharp, descending whistle and then - CRACK - an ear-splitting explosion not too far away. A few hundred yards at most.
I, having no combat experience, thought this was just a bizarrely realistic part of the exercise. But I looked around at the group of JTACs, most of whom had combat experience, and their scared looks scared me. Before we could make sense of whatever that sound was, another descending whistle and a deafening explosion. They dove under vehicles and I followed suit: we were under attack by some kind of incoming artillery.
To make a long story short, a Lithuanian mortar crew was sending high-explosive airburst rounds to a spot about 200 meters from us. “They were using the wrong charts,” I was told, “which meant they were shelling the wrong location.” Being airburst rounds, they exploded about 10m above ground so as to maximize area damage. We were, luckily, unhurt; so was the crew of the German communications truck right near the splash zone, who were sitting in their truck when all of a sudden its reactive armor plates flung closed to cover the windows. Unhurt, but understandably terrified.
That evening, I was out at a bar in Vilnius. My hands were still trembling and, adrenaline still coursing through my veins, I clumsily told two Lithuanians I’d just met what’d happened. “They did that on purpose” was the overconfident response. Still a bit naïve to these things back then, I asked them what they meant. “Russia has people in our military, and they’re always sabotaging these kinds of things. It’s normal.”
For centuries, Europe has enjoyed a somewhat privileged place in the global order - which it achieved bloodily, to be sure. Still, this position required European powers to manage eastward and westward relationships alongside internal ones. Today, however, Europe is on a tightrope and not exactly managing it well. To the west, Russian interference in U.S. politics has destabilized transatlantic unity and rendered dubious America’s reliability as a European ally. To the east, Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine is a dreadful reminder that its expansionist ambitions are far from over (as Eastern European nations credibly warn). Europe’s squeezed between two turbulent powers which it’s had decades to get out from under, and its slothen trajectory’s put it in a position that doesn’t seem like it’ll get better before it gets much, much worse.
An Erosion of Westerly Trust
The United States can be said to be going through a lot of things right now, and social/political turbulence is one of them (if something of an understatement). The past decade has exposed vulnerabilities not only in American institutions, but in the very fabric of the individualistic American’s psyche. It’s hard to accurately capture the extent to which free market social media giants have deteriorated the health and quality of American public discourse, but we know for certain that this devastation has allowed external actors like Russia to exploit the American public’s weakened sense of media literacy, thereby destabilizing public trust and complicating foreign policy consistency. For Europe, this disruption erodes the dependability of its traditional ally. NATO’s unity, once a lullaby to European security, has been all but torpedoed.
For strategists, how do we recalibrate long-standing alliances? How does Europe secure its defense and energy needs when its primary ally is preoccupied with internal divisions? Maybe there’s an answer in diversification—of partnerships, energy sources, and security frameworks—despite the risks of short-term inefficiencies and growing pains.
An Advance of Easterly Aggression
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and all the atrocities it entails have shocked the Western conscience. Yet, this is only the latest in a long history of provocations; all of which have been met with an underwhelming/insufficient response. From its military interventions in Georgia to its annexation of Crimea, Moscow’s been (successfully) testing Western Europe’s resolve and showing it to be the weak, fragmented force it is. The broader strategy seems to be working: dismantle European unity and assert dominance in its sphere of influence.
Regional cohesion is paramount as we move through this. Nations like Poland and the Baltic states are not simply frontline observers, but they’re the moral and strategic lodestars of Europe’s response. My time in both sides of Europe have shown me that Western Europe’s complicity is outweighed by Eastern Europe’s tenacity. Still, Eastern European warnings must be recognized as being grounded in historical memory and they should not be made to take the brunt of any potential onslaught; especially once seen so clearly from so far out. Solidarity is not a luxury, but a necessity in this moment of crisis.
Preparing for the Long Night
If the last few years have taught Europe anything, it should be that neither the Atlantic alliance nor its eastern borders can be taken for granted. Geopolitical uncertainty requires moving away from reactive policymaking and towards proactive, long-term strategic planning. This means investing in resilience—militarily, economically, and socially.
From a strategic standpoint, the path forward requires embracing volatility as a precursor to stability. European nations must navigate unbridgeable gaps in geopolitical priorities while maintaining a cohesive vision. This is no small feat, but the stakes could not be higher. The choices made today will shape Europe’s ability to withstand external pressures and emerge as a robust, independent actor on the global stage.
A Call to Strategic Action
Europe’s current predicament is not just a test of diplomacy; it’s a test of imagination. Can European leaders reimagine their alliances, adapt to new realities, and make the 21st century look meaningfully different from the 20th? History is watching, and the road ahead will get darker before the dawn. Yet, in precisely these moments of uncertainty do innovation and unity become manifest.
However, the charge is not just on policymakers. It’s also on business leaders in all domains to make responsible decisions concerning investments and supply chains; as well as on the general public to demand ethical action from the former groups. And, as a former-soldier-turned-citizen, my personal plea goes out to you all to ensure you and your people are upgrading your resilience: take first aid classes, do regular check-ups on your friends’ and neighbors’ emergency kits, keep plenty of weeks worth of food/water stocked up in a storage room if you’re able to, and invest in a flashlight and radio.